Over the last year, I’ve found myself increasingly jaded about the tech industry.

Back when I was in high school (2004-2007) and college (2007-2011), the “uncool” kids hung out in the computer lab, experimenting with computers while the cool kids focused on developing skills in sports, music, debate, or just hanging out.

In my 2007 class of about 140 students, I didn’t really have a clique to hang out with, so I spent most of my breaks and lunches in the computer lab, learning how to write programs, break the school’s firewall, and even remotely shut down my bully’s computers before auto-save became a thing… [0]

In engineering college, the CS students were kind of the weird kids, even among the engineers.

This low supply of talent, constrained by how uncool computers were, resulted in decades of cushy, high-paying, low-stress, high job security [0], with double-digit annual salary increases and the confidence that even if my current job didn’t work out, I could respond to the five recruiters who cold-emailed me this week asking for an interview.

I remember looking around the room in college (and in my 20s), confused about why more women weren’t interested in tech. The jobs pay very well and offer a lot of flexibility in all the ways you’d want it (easy to find a new job if you’re not happy at your current one, unlimited PTO, flexible schedules, etc.).

It’s always been my dream to start my own startup. I’ve made a few attempts during that time, but nothing was ever as successful as my career working for others.

But in 2022, the world has changed.

Not because technology is unimportant or humans are replaced with AI. Software, data, and infrastructure will continue to shape the global economy. But the career dynamics that made tech uniquely attractive between roughly 2010 and 2021 have changed in fundamental ways.

There is a popular narrative that AI will “replace tech workers.” I don’t agree with that framing.

AI is a productivity multiplier. It changes how work is done, not whether the work exists at all. Skilled engineers who understand systems, trade-offs, and real-world constraints are still necessary—and will be for the foreseeable future.

The larger issue I see in my own career is simpler and more uncomfortable:

Too many people have become software engineers, and job growth has slowed.

The world is flatter: in 2010, for an Indian, Vietnamese, or Chinese person to learn programming, they first needed to learn English before they could write their first line of code. Now, coding education exists in so many languages that there are tons of highly talented engineers who don’t know English.

When Supply Outruns Demand

For a long time, software engineering was not considered a “cool” career. Before 2015, it attracted a relatively small group of people. As a result, demand vastly exceeded supply, and salaries rose rapidly.

After 2015, that changed.

Coding became aspirational. Universities expanded computer science programs. Bootcamps exploded. Online influencers promised six-figure salaries in months. In the COVID years (2020-2022), online influencers bragged about their WFH six-figure jobs (where the H in WFH meant “home”), and the number of graduates more than doubled in a decade.

At the same time, the tech industry’s growth rate slowed.

The result is a collapse in the entry-level job market and a painful experience for more senior talent and H-1B visa holders.

A Useful Comparison: English Teaching in Vietnam

A relatable example is the English-teaching market in Vietnam.

From around 2010 to 2019, English teaching was extraordinarily lucrative for Westerners. Demand was high, supply was limited, and so quality standards dropped to meet the low supply. Many schools hired teachers with no degrees, no experience, and sometimes not even native-level English—so long as they “looked Western.”

That era ended in 2019.

Demand for English education is still strong, but supply has exploded:

  • Vietnamese teachers can now teach English effectively.
  • Filipino teachers have excellent English at much lower wages.
  • Many foreigners accept lower pay because the salary and Vietnamese lifestyle still exceed what they have back home.

The job still exists, but the power dynamics have changed.

Tech is experiencing the same shift.

Globalization Changes the Equation

Most of my observations apply to the U.S. job market, where competition has intensified significantly.

However, this is not universally bad news.

Western companies will continue to move work to lower-cost regions. In Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and parts of Latin America, tech job markets are still growing.

This creates an important nuance:

  • The market is harder for average engineers.
  • Strong engineers still do well.
  • Geographic flexibility matters more than ever.

Why Tech Still Has Value

Despite everything above, I still believe tech is a useful skill set, especially outside the U.S.

Two reasons stand out:

  • Transferability. Unlike professions such as law, pharmacy, or marketing (which are often tied to local regulation and language), engineering skills travel well across borders.
  • Stacking advantages. Being great at English and good at coding is still a powerful combination in Vietnam and Southeast Asia.

Tech may no longer be a guaranteed fast path to wealth—but it remains one of the most portable, flexible careers available.

So Where Does That Leave Us?

The uncomfortable truth is that the tech industry is no longer in a gold-rush phase. It has matured.

That doesn’t mean people should avoid it. It means they should enter it with clear eyes:

  • Expect competition.
  • Credentials and real skill are better than pure credentials or skill alone.
  • Understand that stability and outsized pay are no longer automatic.

And for those willing to adapt, there is still plenty of opportunity.

[0] - In college, I read news articles about teens being arrested for even more innocuous things than I did… So glad I didn’t get caught…